MLB / mlb / live
LAA 2 / HOU 3LAALos Angeles Angels46%
HOUHouston Astros54%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterWalbert UreñaConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
HOUHome starterEthan PeckoConfirmed
LAA46%ML +131
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
HOU54%ML -153
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -117 betrivers / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Ethan PeckoHOU starter / homeThin data
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+131 / -153LAA / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total