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TOR 5 / HOU 4
TORToronto Blue Jays52%
HOUHouston Astros48%

at Daikin Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterJameson TaillonConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
HOUHome starterHunter BrownConfirmed
TOR52%ML +195
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
HOU48%ML -233

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.2 pts

Model's 52.4% on TOR is over 10 points off the market's 62.9% home implied, and the pitching comparison runs the other way: Brown at 3.42 ERA/9.4 K9 versus Taillon at 5.92 ERA/1.36 WHIP. Model also picks the worse-record club. Daikin's 0.81 park factor makes the 8.88 projected total look high against an 8.0 line.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jameson TaillonTOR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 fanatics / U -147 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betrivers / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+195 / -233TOR / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total