MLB / mlb / live
SEA 7 / HOU 10SEASeattle Mariners47%
HOUHouston Astros53%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
HOUHome starterPeter LambertConfirmed
SEA47%ML +105
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
HOU53%ML -124
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 draftkings / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 draftkings / U +130 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.569%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -124SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total