MLB / mlb / live
MIA 2 / HOU 5MIAMiami Marlins48%
HOUHouston Astros52%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline52%Model 20260720_auto
HOUHome starterPeter LambertConfirmed
MIA48%ML -105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
HOU52%ML -112
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 betmgm / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betonlineag / U -146 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -112MIA / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total