MLB / mlb / live
BAL 3 / HOU 2BALBaltimore Orioles52%
HOUHouston Astros48%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterDean KremerConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline52%Model 20260713_auto
HOUHome starterPeter LambertConfirmed
BAL52%ML +100
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
HOU48%ML -120
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Dean KremerBAL starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 draftkings / U +115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 betrivers / U -117 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%over
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -120BAL / HOU moneyline
Run line context-0.3 (0)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total