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TBR 3 / HOU 1
TBRTampa Bay Rays38%
HOUHouston Astros62%

at Daikin Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterNick MartinezConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline62%Model 20260629_auto
HOUHome starterSpencer ArrighettiConfirmed
TBR38%ML -110
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
HOU62%ML -110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.0 pts

Model has HOU 62% despite TBR's superior record (50-33 vs 43-46) and offense (5.7 RPG, .802 OPS vs 4.4 RPG, .695 OPS). Market sees coin flip at -107/-101. Extreme pitcher's park (PF 0.81) argues under on 8.5 total. Martinez's 2.66 ERA in 94.7 IP is legitimate. Model overweighting home park factor; lean TBR.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betmgm / U +112 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -137 betrivers / U +128 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-110 / -110TBR / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total