MLB / mlb / live
CLE 1 / HOU 2CLECleveland Guardians46%
HOUHouston Astros54%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterSlade CecconiConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline54%Model 20260616_auto
HOUHome starterKai-Wei TengConfirmed
CLE46%ML +113
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
HOU54%ML -133
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Slade CecconiCLE starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -175 betonlineag / U +135 bovada3 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Kai-Wei TengHOU starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -104 betrivers / U +102 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+113 / -133CLE / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total