MLB / mlb / live
DET 9 / HOU 3DETDetroit Tigers46%
HOUHouston Astros54%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterDrew AndersonConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterKai-Wei TengConfirmed
DET46%ML +105
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
HOU54%ML -124
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Drew AndersonDET starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Kai-Wei TengHOU starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -158 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%over
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -124DET / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total