MLB / mlb / live
PIT 5 / HOU 1PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterJared Jones
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterKai-Wei Teng
PIT42%ML -105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
HOU58%ML -113
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.2 pts
Model has HOU 58% but market is coin flip (HOU -108). PIT is 33-29 vs HOU 28-35; model picks the worse team. Daikin park factor 0.81 is extreme pitcher-friendly. Jones has no season ERA/IP data despite 10 starts - stat resolution issue undermines total confidence. Lean PIT, under on venue alone.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-105 / -113PIT / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total