MLB / mlb / live
MIL 2 / HOU 0MILMilwaukee Brewers49%
HOUHouston Astros51%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterJacob Misiorowski
Model pickHOU moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterTatsuya Imai
MIL49%ML -200
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability36%Selected moneyline pick
HOU51%ML +165
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.9 pts
Model has HOU 51% vs market's 35% — massive disagreement in extreme pitcher park (PF 0.81). Imai's 13.50 ERA in 2.2 IP is catastrophic; Misiorowski's 1.80 ERA with 19.8 K/9 in 5.0 IP is elite. MIL's .972 OPS crushes HOU's .695. Model total of 9.16 vs market 7.5 ignores park suppression and ace mismatch. Take MIL and under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-200 / +165MIL / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total