MLB / mlb / live
PIT 9 / HOU 11PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
HOUHouston Astros54%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterPaul Skenes
Model pickHOU moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterSpencer Arrighetti
PIT46%ML -145
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
HOU54%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.1 pts
Model has HOU 53.5% vs market's 41.5% — a 12-point gap flagged as structural miss. PIT is 33-28 with better offense (6.1 RPG, .710 OPS) vs HOU 27-35 (5.5 RPG, .695 OPS). Extreme pitcher park (PF 0.81) suppresses totals; market at 7.5 is reasonable, model's 8.92 overestimates. Skenes' 67.5 ERA is artifact of 0.2 IP sample — ignore. Fade model, take PIT and under.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-145 / +120PIT / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -104 / U -116
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total