MLB / mlb / live
PIT 10 / HOU 6PITPittsburgh Pirates40%
HOUHouston Astros60%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBubba Chandler
Model pickHOU moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterMike Burrows
PIT40%ML -102
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
HOU60%ML -115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.8 pts
Model has HOU at 60% but market says coin flip (50.7%). Bubba Chandler's stats are entirely missing—data_quality says 'full' but IP/ERA/K9/WHIP are all null. Burrows' 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP is microscopic sample. Park factor 0.81 argues under on 9.0 total; lean that direction despite missing pitcher data.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-102 / -115PIT / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total