MLB / mlb / live
TEX 1 / HOU 4TEXTexas Rangers53%
HOUHouston Astros47%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterJacob deGrom
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterKai-Wei Teng
TEX53%ML -145
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
HOU47%ML +122
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts
Model predicts 9.03 runs vs market 7.5 in an extreme pitcher park (PF 0.81). deGrom starting for TEX with missing stats likely means elite performance; model may underweight ace effect. HOU offense at 2.7 RPG is worst in sample. Market favors TEX -143, model agrees at 53%. Total disagree strongly with model—lean under.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-145 / +122TEX / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -111 / U -118
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total