MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / HOU 4SEASeattle Mariners42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryce Miller
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterLance McCullers Jr.
SEA42%ML -125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
HOU58%ML +105
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.3 pts
Market favors SEA at 53.7% implied, model has HOU at 58.1%—an 11.8pp gap. SEA's superior offense (4.0 RPG, .793 OPS vs 3.0 RPG, .695 OPS) and better record (21-22 vs 16-27) make model's HOU lean structurally suspect. Daikin Park at 0.81 PF is extreme pitcher-friendly; market total 9.0 vs model 8.74 is reasonable convergence. Side with market on SEA, lean under on suppressed park.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-125 / +105SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total