MLB / mlb / live
SEA 10 / HOU 2SEASeattle Mariners49%
HOUHouston Astros51%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryan Woo
Model pickHOU moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterTatsuya Imai
SEA49%ML -151
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
HOU51%ML +127
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.3 pts
Market favors SEA at 57.2% implied, model has HOU coinflip at 50.6%. Imai's 13.50 ERA in 2.2 IP is catastrophic small-sample noise; Woo's 3.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is early-season but credible. Daikin Park factor of 0.81 is extreme pitcher-friendly. Model total 8.93 vs market 8.5 ignores park context. SEA side, lean under.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-151 / +127SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total