MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / HOU 1SEASeattle Mariners42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterGeorge Kirby
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterPeter Lambert
SEA42%ML -140
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
HOU58%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.7 pts
Model has HOU at 57.5% but market implies SEA 56.5% — a 14-point gap flags structural miss. Kirby's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite; Lambert's missing rate stats suggest fallback uncertainty. Daikin's 0.81 park factor screams under at extreme-park venue; model total 8.85 vs market 9.0 aligns but both should be lower.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-140 / +120SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -106
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total