MLB / mlb / live
LAD 1 / HOU 2LADLos Angeles Dodgers59%
HOUHouston Astros41%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterShohei Ohtani
Model pickLAD moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterPeter Lambert
LAD59%ML -233
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
HOU41%ML +190
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.3 pts
Model at 58.6% for LAD vs market's 69.4% is a massive gap. Daikin Park's 0.81 run factor is extreme pitcher-friendly. Ohtani's strikeout dominance shows in top SHAP features. Model underweights park suppression on totals—8.5 market line vs 9.52 model is structural miss. LAD superior offense (.743 OPS vs .695) with elite pitcher in extreme park argues side and under.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-233 / +190LAD / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -114
30 books27 ML23 run line20 total