MLB / mlb / live
LAD 8 / HOU 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterSteven Okert
LAD42%ML -205
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
HOU58%ML +170
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time22.1 pts
Model has HOU at 57.5% vs market's 35.5% — a 22-point gap, the largest disagreement type. Okert has 2.2 IP across 4 'starts' (opener role), not a true starter. Yamamoto is a legitimate ace. Daikin Park factor 0.81 suppresses scoring. Market correctly prices LAD as road favorite; model misread Okert's bulk role.
Large model-market gapextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-205 / +170LAD / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total