MLB / mlb / live
STL 7 / HOU 5STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMatthew Liberatore
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterMike Burrows
STL42%ML +123
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
HOU58%ML -148
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.0 pts
Model likes HOU 58% but STL has superior offense (4.5 RPG, .812 OPS vs 3.8 RPG, .695 OPS) and better record. Burrows' 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP is alarming. Extreme park factor (0.81) suppresses runs; market total 8.5 aligns with under lean. Offense-defense mismatch flag confirms concern with model's HOU pick.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+123 / -148STL / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -104
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total