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WSN 2 / DET 9
WSNWashington Nationals41%
DETDetroit Tigers59%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterDJ HerzConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260921_auto
DETHome starterRiver RyanConfirmed
WSN41%ML +112
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
DET59%ML -135

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.2 pts

Both starters resolve as fallback with no IP, ERA or K/9, so the pitching side of this is unpriced on my end. Model's 59.2% on DET sits only ~4 points above the market's 55%, a modest gap not worth pressing. Team lines are also inconsistent (DET 5.6 RPG on a .582 OPS vs WSN 4.8 RPG on .820), further reason to stay light. Total at 8.48 vs 8.5 market gives no comparison.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.4
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
DJ HerzWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betmgm / U -152 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.578%
O 3.560%
O 4.541%
O 5.525%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

River RyanDET starter / home
Projected K3.4
Best price at 2.52.5O -104 draftkings / U -115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 2.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%
O 2.566%
O 3.545%
O 4.527%
O 5.514%
O 6.57%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+112 / -135WSN / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total