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COL 7 / DET 11
COLColorado Rockies39%
DETDetroit Tigers61%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterTanner GordonConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
DETHome starterAndrew SearsConfirmed
COL39%ML +138
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
DET61%ML -164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts

Model (61.1%) and market (61.3%) agree on Detroit, so there is no comparison to fade. DET's 5.0 RPG at home against Gordon's 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP is the cleanest angle. Sears has only 1 start and 12.3 IP, so expect a short outing and bullpen innings on both sides; slight lean over 8.5 despite Colorado's weak .531 OPS.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tanner GordonCOL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 fanatics / U +120 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Andrew SearsDET starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -164COL / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -103 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total