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MIN 3 / DET 2
MINMinnesota Twins54%
DETDetroit Tigers46%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterDean KremerConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline54%Model 20260907_auto
DETHome starterDrew AndersonConfirmed
MIN54%ML +114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
DET46%ML -134

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.2 pts

Model has MIN at 54.1% against a market implying 56.1% for Detroit, a double-digit swing driven by Minnesota's offensive comparison (5.5 RPG, .673 OPS vs .582). The starter gap cuts the other way: Anderson at 3.73 ERA with 9.92 K/9 over 91.7 IP against Kremer's 5.81 ERA. Taking the home side with the market. Detroit's 3.9 RPG caps the total below the model's 8.79.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dean KremerMIN starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 draftkings / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Drew AndersonDET starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +105 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+114 / -134MIN / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total