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TBR 3 / DET 0
TBRTampa Bay Rays46%
DETDetroit Tigers54%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
DETHome starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
TBR46%ML +102
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
DET54%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Model (54.4%) and market (52.4%) both tilt Detroit, driven by the pitching comparison: Melton's 1.70 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 90 IP against Peralta's 5.33 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. But Tampa is 78-54 with a .802 OPS versus Detroit's .582, so the talent gap caps conviction. Model's 8.91 total sits well above the 7.5 line and looks high with Melton starting in a neutral Comerica; leaning under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 fanduel / U -120 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -165 betmgm / U +132 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+102 / -120TBR / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -102 / U -116
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total