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TBR 4 / DET 1
TBRTampa Bay Rays46%
DETDetroit Tigers54%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
DETHome starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
TBR46%ML -136
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
DET54%ML +116

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.7 pts

Model's 53.8% on Detroit sits ~9 points above the market's 45.2% and is hard to justify: Rasmussen (3.01 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.25 K/9) clearly outclasses Valdez (4.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), and Tampa Bay is 77-53 with an .802 OPS against Detroit's .582. Model's 9.00-run total is 1.5 above the 7.5 line with no park support (PF 1.016); under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Drew RasmussenTBR starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +120 fanatics3 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 draftkings / U +124 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.575%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-136 / +116TBR / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -111 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total