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BAL 10 / DET 9
BALBaltimore Orioles51%
DETDetroit Tigers49%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
DETHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
BAL51%ML +160
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
DET49%ML -190

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.2 pts

Model has BAL 50.8% but market implies DET 61.4% — a 10.6pp gap flags large disagreement. Skubal's 2.70 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 0.92 WHIP across 90 IP is elite; Rogers' 4.17 ERA is pedestrian. Market correctly favors the ace at home. Model total of 8.55 vs market 7.5 suggests offense upside; BAL's .662 OPS supports over lean.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 bovada / U +110 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalDET starter / home
Projected K8.1Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +102 betrivers / U +100 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 8.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.589%over
O 5.580%over
O 6.568%under
O 7.555%under
O 8.541%under
O 9.530%under
O 10.520%under
O 11.513%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+160 / -190BAL / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total