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KCR 3 / DET 2
KCRKansas City Royals39%
DETDetroit Tigers61%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterMichael WachaConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline61%Model 20260720_auto
DETHome starterCasey MizeConfirmed
KCR39%ML +138
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
DET61%ML -164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.9 pts

Model and market align on DET (model 61.4%, Pinnacle 62.3%). Mize's 2.79 ERA over 80.7 IP is legit, but KCR's offense is MLB-worst (.518 OPS). Model total 8.87 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean; DET offense weak but Wacha's 3.66 ERA/1.17 WHIP is exploitable at neutral park.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +138 fanduel / U -165 betrivers3 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Casey MizeDET starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 fanatics / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -164KCR / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total