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KCR 3 / DET 4
KCRKansas City Royals41%
DETDetroit Tigers59%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
DETHome starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
KCR41%ML +192
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
DET59%ML -233

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts

Model has DET 58.5%, market implies 65.6% — a 7-point gap favoring home side more strongly than model does. Both pitchers sub-2.00 ERA but small samples (Melton 55 IP, Dobnak just 14 IP). Ace matchup flag fires but Dobnak's 14 IP is too thin to trust. Market total 8.0 vs model 9.26 suggests under, aligning with pitcher quality and Comerica's neutral park.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Randy DobnakKCR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +139 draftkings / U -165 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -145 fanatics / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+192 / -233KCR / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total