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scheduled
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies57%
DETDetroit Tigers43%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterCristopher SánchezProbable
Model pickPHI moneyline57%Model 20260706_auto
DETHome starterCasey MizeProbable
PHI57%ML -140
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
DET43%ML +116

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.4 pts

Model has PHI at 57% vs market's 56%, essentially aligned. Ace matchup flag fires (Mize 2.64 ERA, Sánchez 2.62 ERA) but model total 8.63 runs exceeds market 7.5 by over a run. DET averaging 6.1 RPG at home suggests offense is live despite ace arms. Comerica neutral park. Lean over on total, lean PHI on side per market/model consensus.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -132 betrivers / U +114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.587%
O 4.576%
O 5.562%
O 6.546%
O 7.533%
O 8.521%
O 9.513%
O 10.58%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Casey MizeDET starter / home
Projected K5.7
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -133 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.591%
O 3.581%
O 4.566%
O 5.550%
O 6.535%
O 7.523%
O 8.513%
O 9.57%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-140 / +116PHI / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total