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PHI 4 / DET 2
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies57%
DETDetroit Tigers43%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline57%Model 20260706_auto
DETHome starterCasey MizeConfirmed
PHI57%ML -141
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
DET43%ML +120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.9 pts

Model has PHI at 57% vs market's 56%, essentially aligned. Ace matchup flag fires (Mize 2.64 ERA, Sánchez 2.62 ERA) but model total 8.63 runs exceeds market 7.5 by over a run. DET averaging 6.1 RPG at home suggests offense is live despite ace arms. Comerica neutral park. Lean over on total, lean PHI on side per market/model consensus.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K6.5Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -112 betonlineag / U +117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.546%over
O 7.533%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Casey MizeDET starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 betrivers / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-141 / +120PHI / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total