MLB / mlb / live
PHI 2 / DET 10PHIPhiladelphia Phillies46%
DETDetroit Tigers54%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron NolaConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline54%Model 20260706_auto
DETHome starterJack FlahertyConfirmed
PHI46%ML -102
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
DET54%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +104 draftkings / U -121 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Jack FlahertyDET starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -128 fanduel / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-102 / -118PHI / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total