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HOU 0 / DET 8
HOUHouston Astros58%
DETDetroit Tigers42%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterSpencer ArrighettiConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
DETHome starterKeider MonteroConfirmed
HOU58%ML -109
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
DET42%ML -110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.4 pts

Model favors HOU at 58.3% but market is near coin-flip (51.6% DET). DET offense is historically weak (1.3 RPG, .582 OPS over 81 games). Model's total of 7.76 is 1.24 runs under market's 9.0, suggesting structural underweight of pitcher quality. Arrighetti's 8.87 K/9 and Montero's solid 3.68 ERA support under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.6
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betrivers / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Keider MonteroDET starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-109 / -110HOU / DET moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total