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HOU 7 / DET 5
HOUHouston Astros51%
DETDetroit Tigers49%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterHunter BrownConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline51%Model 20260622_auto
DETHome starterJack FlahertyConfirmed
HOU51%ML -114
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
DET49%ML -102

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.8 pts

Model sees coin flip (50.6% HOU), market leans HOU harder (-126 implies 55.8%). Hunter Brown's 1.40 ERA in 19.3 IP is extreme small sample; Flaherty's 5.35 ERA over 65.7 IP is real. DET offense anemic (0.2 RPG, .582 OPS). Market total 8.0 vs model 6.88 suggests under value given pitcher matchup.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Hunter BrownHOU starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -135 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jack FlahertyDET starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -104 fanduel / U -116 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-114 / -102HOU / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total