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NYY 3 / DET 5
NYYNew York Yankees47%
DETDetroit Tigers53%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
DETHome starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
NYY47%ML -126
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
DET53%ML +106

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.6 pts

Market favors NYY at 54.3% implied, model has DET at 53.2%. Cole returning from injury (28 IP) creates uncertainty despite 2.57 ERA. DET offense is brutal (3.1 RPG, .582 OPS) but home park is neutral. Model's +0.01 margin suggests coinflip; defer to market's modest NYY lean without conviction.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betmgm / U +110 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -142 draftkings / U +124 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-126 / +106NYY / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total