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NYY 4 / DET 3
NYYNew York Yankees48%
DETDetroit Tigers52%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCarlos RodónConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
DETHome starterCasey MizeConfirmed
NYY48%ML -118
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability2%Selected moneyline pick
DET52%ML -1

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanOver
Model-market gap49.9 pts

Model likes DET 51.7% vs market 49.1%, essentially a coinflip. NYY offense is vastly superior (3.9 RPG vs 2.7, .692 OPS vs .582) and better record (45-32 vs 30-48). Model's DET lean driven by short-window noise (home_team_roll_short_runs, walks). Offense_defense_mismatch flag fires because model picks the worse team. Total: model 8.21 vs market 7.5, lean over on Comerica neutral park.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Carlos RodónNYY starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 betmgm / U +121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Casey MizeDET starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 fanduel / U -121 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-118 / -1NYY / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total