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CHW 3 / DET 4
CHWChicago White Sox33%
DETDetroit Tigers67%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterBrandon EisertConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline67%Model 20260616_auto
DETHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
CHW33%ML +170
Base model probability67%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
DET67%ML -205

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.8 pts

Model at 67.3% vs market 66.8% on DET — near consensus. Skubal's 2.81 ERA in 48 IP is solid but Fedde's 4.50 ERA creates mismatch. Model total 8.93 vs market 7.5 is a 1.4-run gap favoring over. Offense_defense_mismatch flag suggests caution on side; CHW has better record and offense (.729 OPS vs .582). Total lean over given model-market divergence.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brandon EisertCHW starter / away
Projected K2.2Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.564%over
O 2.538%under
O 3.518%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalDET starter / home
Projected K6.9Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -106 betrivers / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.580%over
O 5.567%over
O 6.553%over
O 7.539%over
O 8.526%under
O 9.517%under
O 10.510%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+170 / -205CHW / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -108 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total