MLB / mlb / live
MIN 4 / DET 10MINMinnesota Twins55%
DETDetroit Tigers45%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterTaj Bradley
Model pickMIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterTroy Melton
MIN55%ML +110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
DET45%ML -128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.3 pts
Model favors MIN 55.2% vs market 45.9% (large disagreement flag). Bradley's 2.08 ERA with 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is micro-sample noise; Melton's missing stats suggest fallback but DET home has value. Market likely correct here. Total: model 9.09 vs market 8.5 in neutral park argues mild over lean.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -128MIN / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total