MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / DET 7SEASeattle Mariners52%
DETDetroit Tigers48%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryan Woo
Model pickSEA moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterFramber Valdez
SEA52%ML -123
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
DET48%ML +104
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.6 pts
Model has SEA 52.2%, market 52.8% — near consensus. Valdez 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite, Woo 3.00 with 13.5 K/9 also strong. Model's 9.03 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run miss; ace matchup and pitcher quality argue under. DET offense (.582 OPS) is league-worst.
total far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-123 / +104SEA / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total