MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / DET 1CLECleveland Guardians42%
DETDetroit Tigers58%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey Cantillo
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterCasey Mize
CLE42%ML +101
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
DET58%ML -120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts
Model favors DET at 57.5% vs market 51.7%, but DET is 20-30 scoring 2.6 RPG (.582 OPS) while CLE is 29-22 at 5.6 RPG. Missing pitcher stats for Mize makes model side suspect. Model total of 9.04 vs market 7.0 is a 2-run structural miss—likely underweighting DET's anemic offense. Lean CLE and under.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+101 / -120CLE / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -117 / U -103
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total