MLB / mlb / live
LAA 10 / DET 6LAALos Angeles Angels37%
DETDetroit Tigers63%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterJack Kochanowicz
Model pickDET moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterKeider Montero
LAA37%ML +115
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
DET63%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap7.6 pts
Model has DET 62.9% vs market 55.2% — a 7.7pp gap favoring the home side. But DET scores just 2.4 RPG (.582 OPS) while LAA scores 3.4 RPG (.860 OPS). Kochanowicz's 11.25 ERA in 4 IP is tiny sample noise, but LAA's offensive comparison is real over 54 games. Market likely right; lean LAA. Total 8.9 vs 8.5 line suggests mild over in a hitter-friendly context.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -136LAA / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total