MLB / mlb / live
CLE 4 / DET 3CLECleveland Guardians46%
DETDetroit Tigers54%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterParker Messick
Model pickDET moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterKeider Montero
CLE46%ML -125
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
DET54%ML +105
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.6 pts
Model likes DET at 53.5% vs market's 46.9%, but CLE has superior offense (5.6 vs 2.5 RPG) and better record (27-22 vs 20-28). Missing pitcher stats (both null ERA/WHIP) creates uncertainty. Model's 9.31 total is 1.3 runs above market 8.0; lean over given DET's weak pitching staff context.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +105CLE / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -114
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total