MLB / mlb / live
TOR 4 / DET 1TORToronto Blue Jays42%
DETDetroit Tigers58%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterKevin Gausman
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterJack Flaherty
TOR42%ML -130
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
DET58%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap11.8 pts
Model disagrees with market by 11.7pp favoring DET, but TOR has massive offensive comparison (4.0 vs 2.5 RPG, .786 vs .582 OPS). Gausman's 1.50 ERA and 16.5 K/9 over 60 IP is elite. DET's 2.5 RPG lowest in sample. Model picking worse offense/defense team is red flag. Market has this right at TOR -124.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-130 / +110TOR / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -104
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total