MLB / mlb / live
TOR 4 / DET 1TORToronto Blue Jays42%
DETDetroit Tigers58%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterKevin Gausman
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterJack Flaherty
TOR42%ML -130
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
DET58%ML +110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.8 pts
Model disagrees with market by 11.7pp favoring DET, but TOR has massive offensive comparison (4.0 vs 2.5 RPG, .786 vs .582 OPS). Gausman's 1.50 ERA and 16.5 K/9 over 60 IP is elite. DET's 2.5 RPG lowest in sample. Model picking worse offense/defense team is red flag. Market has this right at TOR -124.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-130 / +110TOR / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -104
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total