MLB / mlb / live
BOS 10 / DET 3BOSBoston Red Sox42%
DETDetroit Tigers58%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterJovani Morán
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterFramber Valdez
BOS42%ML +148
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
DET58%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.1 pts
Jovani Morán has 2.0 IP this season—essentially an opener or bulk guy, not a traditional starter. Model treats this as ace_matchup based on Valdez's 1.50 ERA in 6 IP, but both samples are tiny. Boston's .736 OPS vastly exceeds Detroit's .582, yet model leans DET at 58%. Market implies 61% DET. With pitcher uncertainty and small-sample ERA noise, I have no comparison here.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+148 / -175BOS / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -108
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total