MLB / mlb / live
BOS 5 / DET 4BOSBoston Red Sox46%
DETDetroit Tigers54%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterPayton Tolle
Model pickDET moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterTyler Holton
BOS46%ML +194
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability67%Selected moneyline pick
DET54%ML -234
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap13.8 pts
Away pitcher has zero resolved stats (fallback data). Model has DET at 60% vs market's 68%; model total is 8.89 vs market 7.0—a 1.89 run gap. Without knowing anything about Tolle, market's sharper line and lower total is more credible. Pass on both moneyline and total.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+194 / -234BOS / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total