MLB / mlb / live
MIL 4 / DET 5MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
DETDetroit Tigers58%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Sproat
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterTarik Skubal
MIL42%ML +190
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability67%Selected moneyline pick
DET58%ML -227
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.3 pts
Market at 67.5% DET vs model's 57.5% is a huge gap. Skubal's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is microscopic sample, but market knows something model doesn't. Sproat's 21.00 ERA equally tiny sample. Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is extreme; lean under given Skubal quality and park neutrality.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+190 / -227MIL / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -106
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total