MLB / mlb / live
ARI 5 / COL 3ARIArizona Diamondbacks57%
COLColorado Rockies43%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline57%Model 20260921_auto
COLHome starterMason AdamsConfirmed
ARI57%ML -163
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
COL43%ML +139
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total11.5
Market total11.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -138 fanduel / U +124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Mason AdamsCOL starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 fanatics / U -127 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.529%over
O 5.516%over
O 6.58%over
O 7.53%over
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-163 / +139ARI / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total