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SDP 9 / COL 2
SDPSan Diego Padres57%
COLColorado Rockies43%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterMichael KingConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline57%Model 20260914_auto
COLHome starterTanner GordonConfirmed
SDP57%ML -198
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
COL43%ML +165

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Market is actually more bullish on SDP (63.5%) than the model (57.4%), and the underlying case is clear: King at 3.03 ERA/1.15 WHIP over 175 IP against Gordon's 5.55/1.48, plus a 27-game record gap. On the total, the model's 12.59 leans almost entirely on Coors park factor; King's quality and COL's weak OPS argue under 11.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.6
Projected total12.5
Market total10.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 fanatics / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Tanner GordonCOL starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -109 draftkings / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-198 / +165SDP / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -120 / U -103
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total