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CLE 7 / COL 2
CLECleveland Guardians53%
COLColorado Rockies47%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline53%Model 20260817_auto
COLHome starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
CLE53%ML -164
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
COL47%ML +140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.7 pts

Griffin (3.18 ERA, 8.17 K/9, 1.11 WHIP over 144.1 IP) is a clear step up on Sugano (4.70 ERA, 5.23 K/9), and the market's -165 on CLE looks better calibrated than the model's 53.3%. On the total, the model's 9.46 is too aggressive against an 11.5 line at a 1.47 park factor, but both offenses (.531 and .600 OPS) are weak enough to justify a mild under.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.5
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Foster GriffinCLE starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -147 betonlineag / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -104 fanduel / U -114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 2.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-164 / +140CLE / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O +100 / U -119
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total