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CLE 4 / COL 3
CLECleveland Guardians55%
COLColorado Rockies45%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline55%Model 20260817_auto
COLHome starterGabriel HughesConfirmed
CLE55%ML -139
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
COL45%ML +119

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Bibee (4.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 150.1 IP) is the clear pitching comparison over Hughes (6.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 37.2 IP), and market agrees at -138. Model's 9.10 total sits 1.9 runs under the 11.0 line despite Coors at 1.47 park factor being its own top total feature; that gap looks like a structural miss, so lean over.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 draftkings / U -122 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Gabriel HughesCOL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +145 bovada / U -161 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-139 / +119CLE / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total