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LAD 6 / COL 4
LADLos Angeles Dodgers48%
COLColorado Rockies52%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterRoki SasakiConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline52%Model 20260817_auto
COLHome starterKyle FreelandConfirmed
LAD48%ML -200
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
COL52%ML +170

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.0 pts

Model's 51.6% on COL sits 16 points above the market's 35.6% implied, and the underlying inputs don't support it: Colorado is 50-76 with a .531 OPS and Freeland carries a 6.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, versus Sasaki at 4.46 with 8.76 K/9. Siding with LAD. Total sits within a quarter run of the 11.5 line, so no comparison despite the 1.47 park factor.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.8
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Roki SasakiLAD starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -139 betrivers / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Kyle FreelandCOL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 draftkings / U +100 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-200 / +170LAD / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -102 / U -117
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total