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KCR 1 / COL 3
KCRKansas City Royals51%
COLColorado Rockies49%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterMichael WachaConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
COLHome starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
KCR51%ML -110
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
COL49%ML -106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.0 pts

Model predicts 12.63 total vs market 11.0 in Coors (PF 1.47). The park factor dominates SHAP for total (+1.096), which is correct. Market at pick'em suggests coin flip on side; KCR's Wacha (3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has comparison over Sugano (4.69 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) at altitude. Lean KCR and over per model's Coors adjustment.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.8
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betmgm / U -120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -104 draftkings / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -106KCR / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total