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KCR 6 / COL 12
KCRKansas City Royals55%
COLColorado Rockies45%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterLuinder AvilaConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
COLHome starterRyan FeltnerConfirmed
KCR55%ML +108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
COL45%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.8 pts

Model picks KCR at 55.2% vs market's 47.4% (COL -116). Both pitchers are mediocre (Feltner 5.73 ERA, Avila 4.95 ERA) but model is fading COL too hard despite home field at Coors. Park factor 1.47 screams over on the 11.5 total; model has 11.9 which aligns. KCR slight comparison but not strong conviction.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -140 fanduel / U +120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +112 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+108 / -125KCR / COL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total