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scheduled
KCRKansas City Royals55%
COLColorado Rockies45%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterLuinder AvilaProbable
Model pickKCR moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
COLHome starterRyan FeltnerProbable
KCR55%ML +100
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
COL45%ML -120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanOver
Model-market gap7.3 pts

Model picks KCR at 55.2% vs market's 47.4% (COL -116). Both pitchers are mediocre (Feltner 5.73 ERA, Avila 4.95 ERA) but model is fading COL too hard despite home field at Coors. Park factor 1.47 screams over on the 11.5 total; model has 11.9 which aligns. KCR slight comparison but not strong conviction.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K3.9
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.574%
O 3.555%
O 4.536%
O 5.521%
O 6.511%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K4.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+100 / -120KCR / COL moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+123)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -112 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total